... A very great change has come over affairs in this part of the world; the first result will be, I imagine, an English Protectorate, if not annexation. I see no other way out of the difficulties Egypt has got herself into. The Soudan must be abandoned, if not entirely, at all events all the country must go to the south and west of Khartoum and Sennar. If England assumes a Protectorate, she could, of course, if she wished it, retain the country to the east of the Nile as far as Sennar, which would be quite enough of the Soudan to keep for the present; but if she does not assume the Protectorate, I see no chance of Egypt being able to do so, for she has neither soldiers nor governing capacities for the Soudan, and she must in that case content herself with a frontier at Assouan or Korosko. Under any circumstances my return is not likely to take place yet awhile. I don't imagine that the Mahdi will prove a very formidable enemy; with judicious management a portion of his present adherents may be induced to abandon him, but if they do not, the very considerable distance which separates him from Egypt Proper, the
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want of water over a great portion of it, and the difficulty of obtaining supplies, will make any advance on his part as far as the frontier of Egypt a matter of a very long time, if ever he should carry it out at all. The only thing we have really to look to is a religious rising, but I hardly expect it....
To the Miss Stephensons
My dear Sisters, — This is to wish you a merry Christmas and happy New Year.... Affairs out here have taken a very important turn lately, but recent information from Khartoum has been satisfactory in one or two respects; first, there is plenty of food, i.e. corn, in the town, enough for the small garrison there for six months, and enough for the civil population for one year; besides which, the harvest is very good and has not been reaped yet, so there is no cause for anxiety there as respects food; then again, some of the outlying garrisons are expected to be in Khartoum by the end of the month — but not all, for they are terribly scattered, one being at Gondokoro, within 5° of the Equator! What is of greater consequence still, if the rumour is correct, is that the tribes about Kordofan are far from being at one with the Mahdi. He, the Mahdi, has informed one of them that he intends to come and punish them for having given assistance to the Egyptians. The reply was: " We are 15,000 strong, all warriors, with plenty of supplies — come on." Another tribe has been threatened in a similar way. These dissensions are satisfactory for the Egyptian Government, who ought, by diplomacy and a judicious administration of backshish, to be able to check any aggressive movement of the Mahdi towards Egypt. On the other hand, General Baker,i8 who will be at Suakin on the 24th, will not, I imagine, be able to open up the road to Berber for some time. News has been received that the wells along the line of route have been destroyed — distance,
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240 miles — and that nothing but a brackish water is left; besides this difficulty to surmount he will have to organise his very motley force, so that he will require time before he will be able to make a forward movement. I have the greatest confidence in him, and am satisfied that whatever is possible to be done he will do. But the Soudan must be abandoned — Egypt cannot hold it; there is not an atom of fighting powerin the natives, and the administration of that distant country has been corrupt and oppressive. The Soudanese are better without a Government at all than with such a one as Egypt has furnished them with. Turkey may come to Egypt's help, but I don't think she will, and there lies the only chance for preserving the country. An English Protectorate is much talked of here, and I think that must come before long.