Prussia's interest in the question was not so obvious or pressing as Austria's, while the King (the Czar's brother-in-law) had always expressed for him the utmost deference, a sentiment which was found to be a constant source of difficulty when endeavours were made for the concurrent action of the Four Great Powers.
As to France, it was not easy to foresee what policy might commend itself to Louis Napoleon. New to the throne, and engaged in feeling around for support in that as yet precarious seat, no indications were visible of the course to which his interests might incline him. But whatever his tendencies might prove to be, it seemed very unlikely that the Empire would begin its career as a belligerent either by singly opposing Russia, or by ranging itself against England, who, in the course of the summer, gave proof, in a great naval review, of her ability to bring a paramount influence into any military enterprise in which command of the sea would be a main condition.
Assuming, then, that Austria were favourable, or neutral, the course which England might take became the prime consideration. Hitherto she had done nothing to encourage the design of Russia, for to maintain Turkey as an independent state was her traditional policy. But, in the long interval of peace since Waterloo,
The Czar s Confidence in his Design. 5
not only had we given no sign of an intention to support that policy by force of arms, but we were believed to be absorbed as a people in those commercial pursuits of the success of which peace is one very favouring condition ; while, as if to emphasise this supposed state of feeling, Lord Aberdeen, our Prime Minister, had become noted for his repugnance to any course which might tend to a resort to arms. The Czar was led by all these considerations to believe that the opportunity had come for giving effect to the idea which, during his visit to England in 1844, he had conveyed to the British Government. While expressing his conviction " that it was for the common interest of Russia and England that the Ottoman Porte should maintain itself in a condition of independence," yet "they must not conceal from themselves how many elements of dissolution that empire contains within itself: unforeseen circumstances may hasten its fall"; and thence he came to the conclusion that "the danger which may result from a catastrophe in Turkey will be much diminished if Russia and England have come to an understanding as to the course to be taken by them in common." It was in unison with these utterances that he addressed to Sir Hamilton Seymour, the British Ambassador at St Petersburgh, on the Qth of January 1853, the parable which has become historical.
Meanwhile, a cause of dispute already existed between Russia and Turkey. A jealousy had long been cherished between the monks of the Greek and Latin Churches in the Holy Land— which of these should
6 Tae Quarrel of the Churches.