her from her attitude of mediator. What had impelled her on her course was the knowledge that below these grounds lurked the true design of the Czar. This had been made clear by his own words to the British Ambassador, already adverted to, and in various conversations in January and February 1853. "We have on our hands a sick man, a very sick man. ... If your Government has been led to believe that Turkey retains any elements of existence, your Government must have received incorrect information. I repeat to you that the sick man is dying, and we can never allow such an event to take us by surprise. We must come to some understanding." But this view was not left to stand alone ; it was enforced by an inducement. " I can only say, that if, in the event of a distribution of the Ottoman succession, upon the fall of the Empire, you should take possession of Egypt, I shall have no objection to offer. I would say the same thing of Candia : that island might suit you and I do not know why it should not become an English possession." The voice which uttered this was the voice of the one potentate who had an interest in precipitating the catastrophe, and who was then taking such a course as might immediately lead to it. Vain indeed the effort to spread his net in the sight of those whom he had thus himself enlightened. But it seems likely — indeed there is no other explanation — that he had forgotten, or dropped out of sight, this complete showing of his hand. As was natural in an autocrat whose faculty for rule lay in the strength of his will, not of his judgment, he had accustomed himself to
1 2 How the Czar was misled into War.
confound what he desired with what he believed in ; and absorbed for the moment in his parade of sympathy with the Christians in Turkey, he had come to consider this as his true motive, and expected others to adopt that view also. So complete was this illusion, that it was long before he had begun to realise the possibility of being opposed by England. At first he had assumed her toleration, if not her concurrence, to be certain. And even when he was at war with Turkey, and the fleets had been despatched to the Bosphorus, he sent an autograph letter to the Queen, expressing surprise that there should be any misunderstanding between the Queen's Government and his own as to the affairs of Turkey, and appealing to Her Majesty's " good faith " and " wisdom " to decide between them. Thus it is evident that it was Russia that had been the first Power to " drift " into war, and this was owing to the false view taken by the Czar. Starting with the belief that Turkey would be left unsupported, he had gone on to assume that he would, by the display of his forces, coerce her into compliance with the measure which would give him the means of, at any time, quarrelling with and crushing her, that England would acquiesce, and that, if she did, he might disregard the other Powers ; and thus he had been led into a position from which he could not recede without war. And the delusion under which he took these steps contains one of the important lessons that render history of value as a guide and a warning. There is a general concurrence that he confided in the belief that England was entirely absorbed in the pursuit of wealth,
His False Views of the English Spirit. 1 3